Electronic Armageddon: The Carrington Event Then and Now. If many of these large transformers went down, it would take down our high tech society with it.

In 1859, an event unlike anything experienced before by modern man, occurred. A massive Coronal Mass Ejection occurred on the sun sending vast quantities of solar particles on a collision course with Earth. The result of this collision caused severe disruptions with the only major electrical equipment then in existence, the telegraph system. Magnetic observatories recorded disturbances in the Earths magnetic field that were literally off the scale.

Auroras were seen as far south as the Caribbean, gold miners in the Rocky Mountains were awakened by a light so bright they thought it was morning and those in the northeast could read news papers by the light.

Telegraph systems throughout Europe and North America failed and in some cases shocked telegraph operators. Telegraph lines threw sparks, paper in some telegraph offices caught fire and some lines continued to send messages even after the battery power had been removed from the line. The electrical effects were severe but the lack of electrical devices in use at this time allowed society to continue as normal and this disturbance was viewed as nothing more than a curiosity.

Scientists believe events of this size can occur every 500 years and events of a lesser but still destructive magnitude can happen several times per century. Scientists are getting better at predicting space weather but mother nature often times ignores our best forecasting and throws us a curve.

What would happen if a storm of this magnitude were to strike the Earth today? The biggest worry we have is the power grid. Satellites would be affected preventing most communications and financial transactions but if the grid goes down due to transformer blowouts, it could be a long time before we get it back up. The larger transformers 500+ KV in size cost millions of dollars and take 1 to 3 years to get even in normal times. Very few of these are kept in supply and the loss of dozens or hundreds at one time could be a disaster as only a small number are made every year and none are currently made in the U.S.

If many of these large transformers went down, it would take down our high tech society with it. Many of our cars and computers and appliances would probably still work, but how would we run them without power? How would we pump water to cities and pump fuel so trucks and trains could deliver food and medicine? How would our medical system operate without the high tech gadgets we depend on to keep people alive and diagnose them? How would we communicate and conduct financial business without our computers? Yes, we have backup generators but how long will they last before they run out of fuel that we can no longer process, pump and deliver?

This is the nightmare scenario we need to address before it happens. Currently we can detect CMEs about 20 hours before they reach Earth. The current plan is to notify power companies of the danger so they can shut down parts of the grid and protect the transformers before they get burnt out. It’s a plan but I feel the need to ask, is this really the best plan we can come up with? What happens if mother nature throws us a curve and we don’t have time to power down the transformers? A report from the EMP commission stated that it would cost about $60 to $100 million to protect the 300 largest transformers that power the grid and an additional $400 to $600 million to protect an additional 3,000 transformers but our leaders don’t think that would be the best use for our money. A NASA report indicates that within 90 seconds of a Carrington Event reaching Earth, the 300 largest transformers in the U.S. would go down and recovery would take 4 to 10 years and some estimates place the death toll in the tens of millions of people.

If the grid goes down civilized society as it is will disintegrate rapidly due to the lax moral standards we now have as a society. The pictures of Japanese citizens patiently waiting in line to get supplies after the 2011 tsunami is a stark difference from what you could expect in the U.S. As with many potential problems, if the government would only discuss it in public and offer the public some simple preparedness tips and discuss how we as a nation would repair the damage, the public knowledge would help mitigate the damage and aid in recovery operations. Unfortunately, that’s not how we do things in the 21st century.

So how do we know how bad it was in 1859 if we didn’t have electronic devices back then to measure it?

To be maximally geoeffective , ie: to drive a magnetic storm, a CME must
(1) be launched from near the center of the sun onto a trajectory that will cause it to impact Earths magnetic field,
(2) be fast (1000 km/sec + ) and massive, thus producing large kenetic energy and
(3) have a strong magnetic field where orientation is opposite that of Earth.

Solar Energetic Particle events dominated by shock-accelerated particles traveling near the speed of light are channeled along geomagnetic field lines into the upper atmosphere above the poles where they can initiate ozone depleting chemistry in the middle atmosphere. Nitrates produced by SEP bombardment settle out of the atmosphere within weeks and are preserved in polar ice, allowing the magnitude of the SEP to be estimated many years later. This is how we can estimate the magnitude of the Carrington Event and apply it to modern technology.

Some scientists fear that the solar maximum that will peak in 2020 will spawn another CME similar to the Carrington Event causing catastrophic results on Earth (SOURCE). The recent uptick in solar storms may give some credence to our newfound concerns. The problem with a solar event as opposed to a man-made event is the possibility that we could be hit multiple times over the course of months before it diminishes. This could make recovery efforts many times more difficult. It is possible for individuals to prepare for an event like this to limit the hardships but this is something that must be done well in advance. The problem is that the vast majority will not prepare and they will cause this disaster to become a catastrophe if it happens. Those that are not prepared to live through a situation like this face a life threatening situation. Those that are prepared, face the danger posed by the unprepared.

One thing everyone needs to keep in mind is that an event of this magnitude will necessitate a plan that spans multiple years in order to get through it. As I always stress, knowledge is the most important thing to have in a disaster and everyone needs to develop a plan that will work best for them. If the grid goes down besides not being able to travel or communicate, banking records could be frozen or destroyed taking your electronic money along with it. In this situation, the only money you may have access to is what you have on hand in cash and even then you may be limited as to what you will be able to buy. The only safe position is to already have supplies on hand. For this type of disaster, there is no such thing as being prepared too early or having too many supplies.

One final item that you need to plan for is the potential for a nuclear incident following a grid down event. The loss of power to maintain coolant can result in a meltdown of reactor fuel and the more serious problem of spent fuel coolant ponds going dry igniting radioactive fires. In this situation you have two choices, evacuate or shelter in place. Evacuation would be difficult at best and sheltering in place would present its own problems. An uncontrolled radioactive fire can spew radiation for decades so each person would need to evaluate the hazard to their location and plan accordingly. A modern day Carrington Event would be nothing short of Armageddon for the people of this planet

How The U.S. Would Look Like Without The Police Force

I remember reading about anarchy in my youth.

It was something that was happening then, especially in third-world countries. Countries in various parts of the world, where the rule of law and order had broken down, and if there was any sort of government in existence, it was symbolic, more than practical. Warlords claimed territories and ruled over them, sometimes clashing over territorial rights. It was an ugly form of feudalism, ruled over by people with criminal intent.

Never in my wildest imagination did I expect to see that happen here in the United States. Yeah, if there was something as grave as an EMP, we might see police and other officials abandon their posts. We might even see warlords setting up their own little fiefdoms, as they tried to gain control of their areas. But to see the police and government officials abandon part of a city, turning it over to what has now been labeled a terrorist group, is mind-boggling.

I think it’s important to note here, that the current level of anarchy in Seattle isn’t due to Black Lives Matter, the organization that is leading protests across the country, but rather by ANTIFA, the fascist group that claims to be against fascism. Since the beginning of the protests, groups like ANTIFA have been hijacking protest events and turning what started out to be peaceful protests into violent riots.

There are actually three groups of people involved here:

  • The protesters, who are upset about the unjust killing of George Floyd and police brutality in general. To some extent, they have been manipulated by the media, but their protest is done in good faith.
  • The rioters, who there is a large amount of evidence have been imported to those protests, for the purpose of turning them into riots. I’d love to know who is funding them.
  • The looters, who are opportunists, mostly from out of the protesters, who have gotten caught up in the mob mentality. Interestingly enough, few of them have any criminal record.

But now, this whole thing has taken an unexpected turn. Calls are going out around the country to “defund the police” from those in the radical left. A veto-proof majority of the Minneapolis City Council has joined together to be the first city to do that, announcing their intent to defund and dismantle the city’s police department. Apparently, they think that putting the police budget into social services will work to eliminate crime in their city.

All I can say is, “Good luck with that.”

There are apparently those who think that they can make their cities safer without police, following some “new model of public safety.” But nobody has put forth any plan that I’ve seen, which manages to address dealing with criminals and the crimes they commit, without having the police there to do so.

What’s their End Game?

First of all, we have to understand that the call to defund the police has nothing to do with the murder of George Floyd. His tragic death is merely being used as a cover for a deeper agenda. It gives those organizing the defund movement a way of connecting emotionally with a lot of people who honestly care about Floyd’s death. In that, they gain the tactic support of people who haven’t yet thought through what a world without police protection would look like.

The call to defund and disband the police actually isn’t something new. It’s an age-old tactic of revolutionaries. Eliminating the existing authority structure makes room for a new one, as nature abhors a vacuum. Those calling the loudest for the abolishment of the police and who are coming to the forefront through those calls are probably the very same ones who are planning on taking over, when and if they get what they want.

We can already see this happening in Seattle. The area known as the Capital Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) has barricades set up, with armed guards at the barricades and patrolling the area. They are checking ID, ensuring that the people within the zone belong there, as well as checking to see that they have a right to go into homes in the area they control. Rumors are circulating that businesses are being exhorted, with demands for “protection money.”

CHAZ has become a police state, ruled by warlords, in all but name. While it is reportedly peaceful, without buildings being burnt to the ground or wholesale looting going on, the people who live in that area aren’t enjoying the same constitutionally guaranteed rights that the rest of us have.

It’s hard to say what is going to happen in Seattle, but my concern is the bigger picture. What will happen to our nation, if any of our cities defund and disband their police forces? Should that happen, I am fairly sure that things will quickly break down into anarchy, with revolutionary warlords taking over those cities.

While I can’t say that this is all part of a coordinated plan to break down American society, as a part of some greater revolutionary plan, I can’t dismiss that idea either. If it is part of such a plan and we ignore it, then we are playing right into their hands.

We’ve Been without Police Before

A little-remembered part of our nation’s history is that there were no police when this country was founded. It wasn’t until 1845, more than a half-century after the signing of the Declaration of Independence, that the first police department was formed, in New York City.

So what happened before then? There was obviously a crime, as crime has existed ever since Cain killed Abel. So communities had to deal with it in some way. Different methods were used, all of which broke down to be the citizens of the community protecting their own community.

  • In some communities, this meant hiring night watchmen, who were paid to keep an eye on things at night.
  • In others, vigilante committees formed, who worked together as volunteers to combat crime.
  • As the frontier moved westwards, many towns hired a town marshal, who was responsible for keeping the peace and dealing with crime (those two things were not considered the same).
  • In addition, religious reformers worked to affect the moral status of the society, using the Bible to teach people to be responsible citizens and obey the law.

Essentially, these were all efforts of the good, law-abiding citizens to control crime in their communities. Most of the crime they dealt with was of the petty violence sort, clashes between different ethnic groups. But that did little to deal with major crimes, which required investigation and someone to track down the criminals. This task fell mostly to bounty hunters, whose personal morals and methods were questionable, to say the least.

It wasn’t until several years after professional police forces were formed, that actual investigative division was formed. That changed policing, moving from mere foot patrols to a focus on finding out who committed the crimes and bringing them before the bar of justice.

It is this function of the police that will suffer the most, when and if the defund movement has any success. While it can be debated how effective the cop on the beat is in deterring crime, there is no question that detectives and their work are responsible for removing a lot of criminals off the streets, keeping those criminals from committing more crimes.

Protecting Yourself

On the most basic level, law enforcement has always been based upon individuals protecting themselves. The various examples I gave above, about how citizens banded together all have that common root. Whether they hired someone to protect them or they resorted to vigilante justice, it was all about protecting themselves and their families from those who were perceived to be criminals.

Should the mob get their way, that’s exactly what we’re going to have to do, once again. The only protection our families will have is the protection that we can offer them ourselves. That means being ready for a home invasion or someone trying to burn down our homes at any time. We will need to be ready to deal with those threats at a moment’s notice.

There are a number of things we need to do, in order to be ready for this:

  • If you don’t carry concealed, then get a license and start doing so now, even in your home. Your gun won’t do you the least bit of good, sitting in the nightstand, if someone kicks in your door, while you’re watching TV.
  • Go to the range and practice up. Accuracy is key when you want to make sure you get any attackers and don’t accidentally hit a family member.
  • Be sure to teach every member of your family to shoot and shoot well.
  • Make sure you have enough ammo on hand.
  • Keep an AR-15 or tactical shotgun loaded and conveniently located, but out of the reach of children.
  • Develop a defensive plan for your home. This must include a room where you gather, in case you come under attack. That room needs to have an escape route, in case you have to flee.
  • Buy several fire extinguishers and put them in different parts of the house. The favorite arson tool of rioters is the Molotov cocktail. You’ll need more than a bucket of water to put one of those out if it comes through the window.
  • Harden your front door, so it can’t be kicked open. Adding a security striker plate and replacing all the screws with 3” long ones works well for this. Make sure you buy one of the long security striker plates (something like 3 feet) and not one that’s only 12” long.
  • Plant a thorny hedge around your front yard, so that people are forced to come up with your front walkway, where you can keep an eye on them.
  • Protect your windows with burglar bars or security window film.

Hopefully, none of this will be necessary and your home won’t come under attack. But if they succeed in eliminating the police or even seriously reducing their funding, there’s a strong possibility that we will see an increase in the violence that these groups are participating in. There have already been calls from some of these groups to move the riots out of the city center and into the suburbs. So the possibility is quite real.

That’s what we need to be prepared for. Once again, I hope it doesn’t happen. But I won’t allow hope to steer my life. Rather, I’ll use whatever means I have at my disposal to protect my family, without allowing myself to cross the line and end up becoming an instigator, in an attempt to stop the violence.

Taking it a Step Farther

Should those who are calling for the elimination of the police succeed, there will clearly be a power vacuum. How long that power vacuum will last is something we can’t foresee, but I doubt it will be long. It appears that those who are calling to abolish the police are already planning on stepping in. If we, the law-abiding citizens of this country, are going to do anything, our time to act will be limited.

The best possible outcome would be if we, the law-abiding citizens of our communities, could take control before the lawless could. Should we succeed in doing that, we might be able to forestall anarchy and crime in our communities. But that would require organizing and putting our people in place before organizations like ANTIFA could put theirs in. I’m not sure that could happen.

If we don’t succeed in doing that, then the only way we’ll have of getting our country back and restoring law and order will be to fight the lawless, wherever they might be. It might mean that second civil war that people have been talking about in recent years. I hope not, but I wouldn’t bet against it.